Council Elections on 1 May… What is the likely impact on planning?
Most of the remaining County Councils have elections next week (except the ones that are postponed due to being abolished and replaced: East Sussex; Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey and West Sussex). The remaining ones are largely Conservative run (2021 was a good year for the Tories) with a handful of NOC Councils… Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire (both probably going to go LibDem) and Gloucestershire (currently a Tory minority becoming a LibDem minority). As for the rest, I do suspect that the Conservatives will have a pretty grim election with most of the remaining Councils flipping to NOC or straight to other parties.
The ones where “planning powers” are up for election are: North Northants, West Northants, Bucks, Wilts, Cornwall, Northumberland, Shropshire, Durham, Doncaster. Of these, only Donny is run by Labour… and they are in trouble there. It is probably one of the places (with Durham currently an all but Labour coalition) where Reform might actually win. As for the rest, they are all Conservative (as I said, 2021 was a good year for the Tories). However, this year all those councils appear to be in trouble for the Tories. They may (with a bit of luck) hang on in some of them but with vastly reduced numbers that will more likely result in ABC (Anything But Conservative) coalitions.
Reform is not likely to win anything significant in the south… They are more likely to split the Tory vote (as they did at the General Election) and let LibDem, Green, Labour and Independents in. The places they are most likely to have bigger successes are in the north… Doncaster, Durham… and Reform will be BAD NEWS for development. I am not even going to dress this up. Most of their policies Nationally are anti-housebuilding, anti renewables, anti everything and their candidates tend to be the sort that spend too much time on Facebook being outraged by everything under the sun... Governing by social media… the most dangerous sort of governing there is!
Where the Tories fall, the “progressive alliances” and other Parties that will replace them will quickly have to learn the ropes and tackle the massive housing shortfalls and Local Plan making. There are bound to be some Councillors who got in on anti-development tickets… (You know the sort: “Vote for me and I will stop the houses/solar farm/HS2 etc.”). They may be a bit of a pain in the backside, but ultimately there is a Labour Government with a huge majority and spectacular ambitions on housing and infrastructure delivery and they will have to come up with the goods.
What worries me most about this election is the prospect of a further Tory wipe-out. This cannot be healthy for democracy. With the ABC Coalitions, more people in theory have a say with more diverse views but this is not always easy to navigate… diverse beliefs comes with diverse views.
But thankfully we are here to help you navigate it all!
Henry
If you would like to hear more about this in Oxfordshire and the surrounding counties, consider joining us on 9th May Friday afternoon in Oxford at our next panel event. Talk to me or visit our events page to learn more.